[act] innovation
Technology is constantly evolving. There are 3 principles of technology adoption that always hold true.
Principle 1: The Gartner Hype Cycle
All-new breakthrough technologies follow a cycle of introduction, excitement, over-hyped expectations, disappointment, then calibrated expectations.
When a new technology is introduced, the first version often has very limited capabilities but shows a promising future that piques the interest of the public.
The second version of the technology is a leaps-and-bounds improvement over the first. It generates so much excitement that the public believes it will fundamentally change our lives very soon. Some businesses make significant investments into the new technology. This leads to the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
Because the technology is still early, business or consumer expectations far exceed the reality. They become disappointed that their vision of the future can’t be realized and pull back investments, believing the technology is a failure. This leads to the Trough of Disillusionment.
The companies building the new technologies continue to make evolutionary updates that make it better over time. The public slowly realizes the reality of the technology and the actual benefits for them. With their expectations now matching reality, this leads to the Slope of Enlightenment.
Principle 2: The Tcchnology Adoption Lifecycle
The technology adoption cycle, or more commonly known as the tech adoption curve, is the sequential process of how all new technology paradigms are adopted.
It is a fundamental rule for how all new technologies eventually permeate into all parts of society.
AI, electric vehicles, smartphones, social media, the internet, television, radio, telephone, airplanes, automobiles, electricity, the printing press, all followed this pattern.
But not all new technologies make it to full market adoption.
Adoption is sequential
Each of the five groups have vastly different values and behaviors.
The most important group are the Early Adopters. They have the highest standards to adopt a new technology, but if they do, it opens the doors for the rest of society.
Businesses and products must evolve at each stage to meet the unique needs of that group, otherwise adoption will stall.
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Population: Very small, 5% of total market
Attitude: High enthusiasm and very optimistic, but often not very vocal
Role in society: Seek to advance society by trying out any new technology and evaluating its viability
Influenced by: Tech visionaries and science fiction. Otherwise, they don’t care what others think
Requirements for adoption: Willing to try anything that advances the tech paradigm. They are willing to try product alphas, pre-production, and science projects.
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Population: Medium, 15% of total market
Attitude: Highly skeptical at first, then highly enthusiastic if they become believers
Role in society: The evangelizers of new technology. Once they adopt, they will learn everything about it and tell the world, even if the world doesn’t want to listen.
Influenced by: They rely on the Innovators to advance the technology beyond the earliest phases because it’s a social faux pas for this group to promote early ideas that fail
Requirements for adoption: They will try product betas and first-generations but it must be usable AND practical, AND delightful AND better than the current paradigm
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Population: Large, 30% of total market
Attitude: Cautiously optimistic. They are generally aware of new technologies but take a wait-and-see approach
Role in society: The first to accept fully baked, highly functional products with no bugs or inconveniences
Influenced by: They rely on the Early Adopters to educate them on why this is the next big thing
Requirements for adoption: Affordability and everyday functionality, practicality, and usability
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Population: Large, 30% of total market
Attitude: Low enthusiasm for technology, but easily excited by basic advanements
Role in society: To fit in. They do not want to be the first nor the last. They are not open to change unless it’s proven and considered mainstream.
Influenced by: They rely on the Early Majority to make the technology mainstream and wait for a cheaper and simpler version to come out for them.
Requirements for adoption: Everyone else has it
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Population: Medium, 20% of total market
Attitude: No excitement or affinity for technology whatsoever
Role in society: Maintain their current paradigm for as long as possible, regardless of technological evolution around them
Influenced by: No one. They don’t care about falling behind or what the public thinks of them
Requirements for adoption: When they can no longer continue with their current way of life
Principle 3: To cross the chasm for mass adoption, a societal problem or need must be addressed
There is a “chasm” that exists within the Early Adopter segment.
This chasm exists because Early Adopters have the most difficult requirements to adopt a new technology. If all of their requirements are met, the technology “crosses the chasm” and has the ability to permeate the rest of society.
If all requirements aren’t met, the technology is doomed to fail or remain a niche product.
The requirements for Early Adopters to cross the chasm
Early Adopters are sensitive to missing requirements
Fell into the chasm: Twitter Peek
Introduced in 2008, the Twitter Peek was a 3G device with a QWERTY keyboard but limited scroll functions.
Literally, this was a device solely for using Twitter: The Peek could not text or email, there was no internet browser, and no additional updates were possible.
The Peek buzzed every time a follower Tweeted.
It was $99 w/6 months of service, $8/month afterwards or $199 w/lifetime service
USABLE
PRACTICAL
DELIGHTFUL
BETTER THAN THE CURRENT PARADIGM
For product innovators
01
All new technology paradigms follow the technology adoption curve and adoption is sequential starting with Innovators. There are no exceptions. None.
02
New technology paradigms are poorly understood by the public in general, but especially by the Late Majority. It’s difficult to understand something that’s never been seen or experienced before, so the default public opinion is often skeptical and dismissive until they are educated otherwise — even among Early Adopters.
03
For mass adoption of a new technology paradigm, an unaddressed societal problem or need must be solved. New tech paradigms that solve societal needs have the largest impact.
04
When introducing new tech paradigms, elements of familiarity are required. Our thinking and beliefs are anchored in previously established paradigms. Even the newest tech paradigms must incorporate some basic familiarity, such as naming, user controls, and / or design aesthetic.
For over fifteen years, Fred Kim has successfully de-risked product and launch strategies for emerging technologies in Silicon Valley, leveraging the three principles of technology adoption to ensure product market fit.
He led pre-strategy for the U.S. launch of electric vehicles and self-driving cars at Mercedes-Benz Research & Development, the development of new mobility services at Volkswagen Group, rebooted the requirements of innovative ad products at Google, and guided the metaverse business launch at Meta.
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Available for conversations and very select consultation + speaking engagements on product adoption